SC Freiburg 1-4 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours RB Leipzig (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SC Freiburg face RB Leipzig.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
RB Leipzig travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg in Bundesliga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SC Freiburg stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, SC Freiburg have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Leipzig's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Leipzig — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and RB Leipzig's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, RB Leipzig have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for SC Freiburg.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended SC Freiburg 1–3 RB Leipzig — a RB Leipzig win.
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 54% versus RB Leipzig 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 59% | RB Leipzig 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Freiburg surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while RB Leipzig have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.85 xG and RB Leipzig 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.107 / defence 1.186 | RB Leipzig attack 1.423 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.432. RB Leipzig have an above-average attack rating of 1.423, which lifts their away xG to 2.42. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 61 games and RB Leipzig's last 61.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 29% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 49%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.50 | Draw 4.55 | RB Leipzig 2.02. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 78% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% — both xG figures (1.85 / 2.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.27 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and RB Leipzig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 78% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 80% (last 10 home games) | RB Leipzig 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 29% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 78% (No 22%) | xG SC Freiburg 1.85 / RB Leipzig 2.42 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.107 / def 1.186 | RB Leipzig attack 1.423 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
2.42
RB Leipzig xG
78%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig FAQs
What time does SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
SC Freiburg 1 - 4 RB Leipzig.
Where is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 29% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.11) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 2.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Freiburg's last 61 games and RB Leipzig's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
29%
3.50
22%
4.55
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
4.27
2.42
RB Leipzig xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.57
Clean Sheet
9%
11.21
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
3%
39.26
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 2.42 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 27W 14D 20L from 61 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 35W 11D 15L across 61 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.56 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 15W 9D 6L from their last 30 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 13W 6D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.03 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
SC Freiburg (Home) vs RB Leipzig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Freiburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Form FAQs
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 27W 14D 20L in their last 61 games (1.56 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 35W 11D 15L in their last 61 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.80 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.50 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won SC Freiburg 1-4 RB Leipzig.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Freiburg have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 60%, RB Leipzig 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SC Freiburg) and 67% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SC Freiburg's games and 63% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SC Freiburg's matches and 67% of RB Leipzig's.
Do SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 73% of RB Leipzig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat SC Freiburg 1-4 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.85 xG and RB Leipzig 2.42 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig outscored their 2.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.11 / defence 1.19 against RB Leipzig attack 1.42 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 29% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 49%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 59%, RB Leipzig 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.56 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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