1. FC Köln 2-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum meet at Cologne Stadium in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 2W 3D 5L at Cologne Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
VfL Bochum have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 0.90 for VfL Bochum. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Köln lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
VfL Bochum half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 56% versus VfL Bochum 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 43% | VfL Bochum 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.47 xG and VfL Bochum 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.664 / defence 1.162 | VfL Bochum attack 0.761 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.432. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 1. FC Köln games / 61 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 39% | Draw 31% | VfL Bochum 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | VfL Bochum 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 40% | VfL Bochum 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Cologne Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 39% | Draw 31% | VfL Bochum 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.47 / VfL Bochum 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.664 / def 1.162 | VfL Bochum attack 0.761 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.27
VfL Bochum xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum kick off?
1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Cologne Stadium.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
1. FC Köln 2 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Cologne Stadium.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum part of?
1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 39% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 3 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.66x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.76x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.27
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.73
1.27
VfL Bochum xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.27 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 13W 22D 26L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum's form line: 15W 16D 30L from 61 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.00 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 7D 20L from 30 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.18 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 13W 22D 26L in their last 61 games (1.00 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 15W 16D 30L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or VfL Bochum away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.07 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when 1. FC Köln 2-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 50%, VfL Bochum 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (1. FC Köln) and 60% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 43% of games; VfL Bochum in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 47% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 60% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at Cologne Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.47 xG and VfL Bochum 1.27 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.66 / defence 1.16 against VfL Bochum attack 0.76 / defence 1.38, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 39% | Draw 31% | VfL Bochum 30%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 43%, VfL Bochum 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.00 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.