1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

FC Augsburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim in Bundesliga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. FC Augsburg's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of 1899 Hoffenheim's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 60% of FC Augsburg's (from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, FC Augsburg 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 1–1 FC Augsburg — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 75% and FC Augsburg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 69% | FC Augsburg 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1899 Hoffenheim surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while FC Augsburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and FC Augsburg 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.870 / defence 1.213 | FC Augsburg attack 1.155 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.423. 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Augsburg's projected output up. Data: built from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 61 games and FC Augsburg's last 61.

Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 22% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 53%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 4.48 | Draw 4.05 | FC Augsburg 1.89. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1899 Hoffenheim 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).

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