1. FC Köln 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cologne Stadium plays host to 1. FC Köln versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Köln (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Cologne Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, SC Freiburg are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
It is worth noting that SC Freiburg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 55% versus SC Freiburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 42% | SC Freiburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 0.97 xG and SC Freiburg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.631 / defence 1.225 | SC Freiburg attack 0.934 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.373. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.631 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 1. FC Köln games / 65 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 21% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 49%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 2.04. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Köln 30% | SC Freiburg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Cologne Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 21% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG 1. FC Köln 0.97 / SC Freiburg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.631 / def 1.225 | SC Freiburg attack 0.934 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.57
SC Freiburg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Cologne Stadium.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg?
1. FC Köln 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Cologne Stadium.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg part of?
1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 21% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 5W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.93x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
21%
4.72
30%
3.39
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.54
1.57
SC Freiburg xG
4.72
21%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
4%
22.72
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.57 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln's recent record stands at 14W 23D 28L from 65 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 22L across 65 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Köln have managed 9W 8D 15L from 32 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 13W 5D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.45 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 14W 23D 28L in their last 65 games (1.00 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 28W 15D 22L in their last 65 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.09 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 50%, SC Freiburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (1. FC Köln) and 66% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 38%; 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 47% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 66% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Köln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cologne Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as 1. FC Köln and SC Freiburg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 0.97 xG and SC Freiburg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.63 / defence 1.23 against SC Freiburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 21% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 49%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 42%, SC Freiburg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.