SC Freiburg 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Freiburg face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to Europa-Park Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for SC Freiburg, 1.10 for 1. FC Heidenheim — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of SC Freiburg's games and 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended SC Freiburg 2–3 1. FC Heidenheim — a 1. FC Heidenheim win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 54% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 58% | 1. FC Heidenheim 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Freiburg surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while 1. FC Heidenheim have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.55 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.954 / defence 1.275 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.859 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.409. SC Freiburg's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output up. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 66 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 32.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.75 | Draw 3.61 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.78. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — SC Freiburg 36% and 1. FC Heidenheim 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 80% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG SC Freiburg 1.55 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.954 / def 1.275 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.859 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
1. FC Heidenheim xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim FAQs
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 36% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 0.95x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.86x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from SC Freiburg's last 66 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.61
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.54
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.54 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 28W 16D 22L from 66 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 28W 21D 17L across 66 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.59 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 15W 10D 8L from their last 33 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 10W 12D 11L across their last 33 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.70 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
SC Freiburg (Home) vs 1. FC Heidenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Freiburg
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Form FAQs
What form are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 28W 16D 22L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 28W 21D 17L in their last 66 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.67 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.27 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 SC Freiburg on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Freiburg have won 3, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 64%, 1. FC Heidenheim 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SC Freiburg) and 48% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SC Freiburg's games and 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 73% of 1. FC Heidenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 1-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.55 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.27 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 58%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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