Borussia Dortmund 5-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at BVB Stadion Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Dortmund at BVB Stadion Dortmund this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Augsburg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.70 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Dortmund register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Borussia Dortmund have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while FC Augsburg have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 60% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 65% | FC Augsburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.91 xG and FC Augsburg 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.067 / defence 0.959 | FC Augsburg attack 1.091 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.391. Data: 65 Borussia Dortmund games / 65 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 47% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | FC Augsburg 3.57. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 70% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: BVB Stadion Dortmund • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 47% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.91 / FC Augsburg 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.067 / def 0.959 | FC Augsburg attack 1.091 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.46
FC Augsburg xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at BVB Stadion Dortmund.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund 5 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at BVB Stadion Dortmund.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 47% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 3W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.07) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.91
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.36
1.46
FC Augsburg xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
15%
6.74
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.46 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 65 games, going 38W 14D 13L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.12 PPG from 65 outings (19W 16D 30L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 22W 5D 5L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.84 points per game from 32 outings (7W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.38 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 65%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 38W 14D 13L in their last 65 games (1.97 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 19W 16D 30L in their last 65 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.22 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 59%, FC Augsburg 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Borussia Dortmund and 66% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 69% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 66% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 5-1 at BVB Stadion Dortmund, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.91 xG and FC Augsburg 1.46 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against FC Augsburg attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 47% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 65%, FC Augsburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.59 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.