Union Berlin 3-4 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Union Berlin, 0.80 for VfL Bochum — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with VfL Bochum winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 42% versus VfL Bochum 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | VfL Bochum 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.62 xG and VfL Bochum 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.769 / defence 1.134 | VfL Bochum attack 0.718 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.360. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Union Berlin games / 65 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | VfL Bochum 4.17. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 50% | VfL Bochum 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Union Berlin 1.62 / VfL Bochum 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.769 / def 1.134 | VfL Bochum attack 0.718 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
VfL Bochum xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Union Berlin 3 - 4 VfL Bochum.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 47% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
Record (5 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 1 | VfL Bochum 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.77) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.72x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.43
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.72
1.11
VfL Bochum xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
21.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.11 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 26W 14D 25L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
VfL Bochum's form line: 16W 17D 32L from 65 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.84 PPG from 32 outings (17W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 7D 22L from 32 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.18 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum in 60%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfL Bochum
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 26W 14D 25L in their last 65 games (1.42 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 16W 17D 32L in their last 65 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Bochum away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.84 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 47%, VfL Bochum 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 59% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 28% of games; VfL Bochum in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 47% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 59% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Bochum defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat Union Berlin 3-4 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.62 xG and VfL Bochum 1.11 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Bochum outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against VfL Bochum attack 0.72 / defence 1.27, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 47% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a VfL Bochum win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, VfL Bochum 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with VfL Bochum winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.