SV Wehen 1-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Wehen at 39%, yet in-form Hannover 96 provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Wehen host Hannover 96 at BRITA-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Wehen stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SV Wehen have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SV Wehen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Hannover 96 have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hannover 96 — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of SV Wehen's games and 60% of Hannover 96's (from SV Wehen's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SV Wehen have won 0, Hannover 96 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended SV Wehen 0–2 Hannover 96 — a Hannover 96 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SV Wehen in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Wehen 58% and Hannover 96 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 46% | Hannover 96 73%). Note also that Hannover 96 surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while SV Wehen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.51 xG and Hannover 96 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.839 / defence 1.119 | Hannover 96 attack 0.968 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.369. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 24 games and Hannover 96's last 58.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 39% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 37%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.60 | Draw 4.11 | Hannover 96 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Wehen at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hannover 96 (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Wehen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Wehen's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 70% (last 10 home games) | Hannover 96 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 39% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SV Wehen 1.51 / Hannover 96 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.839 / def 1.119 | Hannover 96 attack 0.968 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Hannover 96 xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 FAQs
What time does SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
SV Wehen 1 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 part of?
SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 39% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SV Wehen and Hannover 96 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Wehen's attack rating (0.84) and Hannover 96's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Wehen's last 24 games and Hannover 96's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
39%
2.60
24%
4.11
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
3.00
1.48
Hannover 96 xG
2.60
39%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.48 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 10W 6D 10L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Hannover 96's form line: 10W 9D 7L from 26 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Wehen on 1.38 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 12 home games (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 3W 4D 5L from their last 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hannover 96's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Wehen are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.88 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 in 65%.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
SV Wehen (Home) vs Hannover 96 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Wehen
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 Form FAQs
What form are SV Wehen and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 10W 9D 7L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Hannover 96 away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.58 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
1
Draws
1
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Hannover 96?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Wehen have won 0, Hannover 96 have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Hannover 96 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: SV Wehen 1-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Wehen at 67%, Hannover 96 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (SV Wehen) and 67% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Wehen vs Hannover 96 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Wehen and Hannover 96 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SV Wehen's games and 67% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Wehen and Hannover 96 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of SV Wehen's recent games and 67% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and Hannover 96 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 75% of Hannover 96's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Wehen and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 25, as SV Wehen and Hannover 96 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.51 xG and Hannover 96 1.48 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Hannover 96 attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 39% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 37%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 46%, Hannover 96 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.38 PPG, Hannover 96 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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