1. FC Magdeburg 0-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg make the trip to MDCC-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's home record at MDCC-Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.20 for 1. FC Nürnberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Magdeburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 60% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 59% | 1. FC Nürnberg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.92 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.082 / defence 0.813 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.899 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.358. Data: 58 1. FC Magdeburg games / 58 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 59% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 19%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Nürnberg 5.26. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 70% | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 59% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.92 / 1. FC Nürnberg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.082 / def 0.813 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.899 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
0.99
1. FC Nürnberg xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 59% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.90x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.57
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.92
0.99
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
35.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0.99 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, 1. FC Magdeburg have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 20W 14D 24L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 19W 15D 24L from 58 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.24 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (12W 7D 10L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 7W 7D 15L from 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.14 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 19W 15D 24L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.48 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
4
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 62%, 1. FC Nürnberg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 52% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Nürnberg defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-1 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.92 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.99 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 59% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 19%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Nürnberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 59%, 1. FC Nürnberg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.