Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Düsseldorf face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Hamburger SV at Düsseldorf Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 8 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hamburger SV have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.40 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 2 for Hamburger SV and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 0–1 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and Hamburger SV 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | Hamburger SV 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.52 xG and Hamburger SV 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.011 / defence 1.044 | Hamburger SV attack 1.155 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.382. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 58 games and Hamburger SV's last 58.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 41%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.84 | Draw 4.27 | Hamburger SV 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 80% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.52 / Hamburger SV 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.011 / def 1.044 | Hamburger SV attack 1.155 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Hamburger SV xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 8 March 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 35% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 58 games and Hamburger SV's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
35%
2.84
23%
4.27
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.19
1.67
Hamburger SV xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
7%
15.08
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.67 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 27W 14D 17L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Hamburger SV's form line: 31W 11D 16L from 58 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.64 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 7D 6L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 12W 8D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.00 scored and 1.47 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 62%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 27W 14D 17L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 31W 11D 16L in their last 58 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hamburger SV away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.90 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hamburger SV have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Oct 2024, when Hamburger SV won Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Hamburger SV 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 69%, Hamburger SV at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 62% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 62% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 62% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 79% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hamburger SV 2-0 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.52 xG and Hamburger SV 1.67 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Hamburger SV attack 1.16 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 41%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, Hamburger SV 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.64 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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