Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hansa Rostock to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Eintracht-Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Eintracht Braunschweig have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Hansa Rostock have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Eintracht Braunschweig's 0 victories.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Hansa Rostock winning.
It is worth noting that Hansa Rostock have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 59% versus Hansa Rostock 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | Hansa Rostock 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.50 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.881 / defence 0.862 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.622 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.382. Data: 58 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 58 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 18%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Hansa Rostock 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Braunschweig (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Hansa Rostock lead the H2H ledger, but Eintracht Braunschweig carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 70% | Hansa Rostock 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.50 / Hansa Rostock 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.881 / def 0.862 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.622 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Hansa Rostock xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Eintracht Braunschweig 0 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 55% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 3W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Braunschweig's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.81
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.24
0.74
Hansa Rostock xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
4%
24.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 0.74 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 16W 12D 30L from 58 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 31L across 58 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.03 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 12W 6D 11L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 8W 6D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.93 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 58 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 12D 30L in their last 58 games (1.03 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 18W 9D 31L in their last 58 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.45 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hansa Rostock have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
4
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Hansa Rostock have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 55%, Hansa Rostock 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 48% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 34% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 48% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hansa Rostock defy the odds to beat Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.50 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.74 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Braunschweig fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.62 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 18%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Hansa Rostock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 55%, Hansa Rostock 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.03 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.