PAU 2-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Auxerre at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, PAU have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PAU's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Auxerre away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of PAU's games and 80% of Auxerre's (from PAU's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, PAU have won 0, Auxerre 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended PAU 2–2 Auxerre — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 52% versus Auxerre 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 45% | Auxerre 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAU surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Auxerre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.38 xG and Auxerre 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.144 / defence 1.216 | Auxerre attack 1.173 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.093. PAU's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 60 games and Auxerre's last 22.
Result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 42%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.96 | Draw 4.08 | Auxerre 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 60% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG PAU 1.38 / Auxerre 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.144 / def 1.216 | Auxerre attack 1.173 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Auxerre xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does PAU vs Auxerre kick off?
PAU vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Auxerre?
PAU 2 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is PAU vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Auxerre part of?
PAU vs Auxerre is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 34% chance of winning, Auxerre a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both PAU and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.14) and Auxerre's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 60 games and Auxerre's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
34%
2.96
24%
4.08
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
PAU xG
Total xG
2.94
1.56
Auxerre xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are PAU and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for PAU and 1.56 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAU come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 19D 21L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (20W 18D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.32 PPG, Auxerre on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
PAU's home form reads 11W 10D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 8D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.33 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ PAU vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Auxerre in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 19D 21L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Auxerre away?
PAU's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.43 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2021, when Auxerre won Auxerre 4-1 PAU.
PAU's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
PAU
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Auxerre?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: PAU 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 47%, Auxerre 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAU) and 57% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: PAU have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of PAU's games and 67% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PAU and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAU's recent games and 57% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of PAU's recent matches and 77% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 23, as PAU and Auxerre drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.38 xG and Auxerre 1.56 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.14 / defence 1.22 against Auxerre attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 34% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 42%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 45%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Auxerre 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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