Bastia 1-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 59%, yet in-form Ajaccio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bastia vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bastia host Ajaccio at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Bastia — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Bastia have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Ajaccio have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Ajaccio have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajaccio — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bastia, 1 for Ajaccio and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2023, ended Bastia 0–2 Ajaccio — a Ajaccio win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bastia in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Ajaccio 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 42% | Ajaccio 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.54 xG and Ajaccio 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.926 / defence 0.905 | Ajaccio attack 0.621 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.125. Ajaccio's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bastia's projected output up. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.621 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Data: built from Bastia's last 60 games and Ajaccio's last 22.
Result probabilities: Bastia 59% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 15%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.68 | Draw 3.93 | Ajaccio 6.62. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajaccio (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 50% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Monday 5 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 59% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Bastia 1.54 / Ajaccio 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.926 / def 0.905 | Ajaccio attack 0.621 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Bastia (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Ajaccio xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Ajaccio kick off?
Bastia vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 5 February 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Ajaccio?
Bastia 1 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Bastia vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Ajaccio part of?
Bastia vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 59% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bastia and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Bastia vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bastia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 60 games and Ajaccio's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
59%
1.68
25%
3.93
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.18
0.63
Ajaccio xG
1.68
59%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
3%
30.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Bastia and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bastia and 0.63 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 15D 22L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Ajaccio's form line: 16W 11D 33L from 60 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Bastia are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 5W 4D 21L from their last 30 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.75 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Bastia vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 16W 11D 33L in their last 60 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Ajaccio away?
Bastia's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.83 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Bastia or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jan 2025, when Bastia won Bastia 4-0 Ajaccio.
Bastia's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bastia
1
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Ajaccio?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 4, Ajaccio have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bastia and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2025: Bastia 4-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Ajaccio?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 40%, Ajaccio 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bastia) and 60% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 27% of games; Ajaccio in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bastia's recent matches and 37% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bastia's recent games and 60% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Bastia's recent matches and 73% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Ajaccio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.54 xG and Ajaccio 0.63 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Ajaccio attack 0.62 / defence 1.34, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 59% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 15%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 42%, Ajaccio 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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