Laval 2-4 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Laval and Quevilly meet at Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Laval have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Quevilly (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Laval have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Quevilly in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Laval lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Laval — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 47% versus Quevilly 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 50% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.42 xG and Quevilly 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.898 / defence 1.107 | Quevilly attack 1.238 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.093. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Laval's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Quevilly have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Laval games / 60 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 36% | Draw 25% | Quevilly 39%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Quevilly 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Laval 60% | Quevilly 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 36% | Draw 25% | Quevilly 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Laval 1.42 / Quevilly 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.898 / def 1.107 | Quevilly attack 1.238 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Quevilly xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Quevilly kick off?
Laval vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Quevilly?
Laval 2 - 4 Quevilly.
Where is Laval vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Quevilly part of?
Laval vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 36% chance of winning, Quevilly a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Laval and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Quevilly?
Record (3 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Laval and Quevilly in?
Laval (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.90) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (1.24x) against Laval's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
36%
2.79
25%
4.05
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Laval xG
Total xG
2.92
1.50
Quevilly xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Laval and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Laval and 1.50 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Laval come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 10D 25L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (15W 23D 22L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Laval against 1.13 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Laval's home form reads 14W 5D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (7W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 25W 10D 25L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 15W 23D 22L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Quevilly away?
Laval's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.57 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Laval or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Quevilly in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Laval
1
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Laval have won 1, Quevilly have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Laval 2-4 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 57%, Quevilly 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Laval) and 47% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 33%; Quevilly in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Laval's recent matches and 43% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Laval's recent games and 47% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Quevilly tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Laval 2-4 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.42 xG and Quevilly 1.50 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Quevilly attack 1.24 / defence 1.30, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 36% | Draw 25% | Quevilly 39%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 50%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.42 PPG, Quevilly 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.