Amiens 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 34%, yet the head-to-head data favours Paris FC — this Amiens vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Amiens welcome Paris FC to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Amiens's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Paris FC — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Paris FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Amiens) versus 2.00 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Paris FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Amiens.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Amiens 0–3 Paris FC — a Paris FC win.
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 45% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Paris FC trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 45% versus Paris FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 38% | Paris FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.90 xG and Paris FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.819 / defence 0.835 | Paris FC attack 0.979 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.093. Data: built from Amiens's last 60 games and Paris FC's last 60.
Result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.96 | Draw 3.04 | Paris FC 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Paris FC's lower xG of 0.89 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Amiens's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 40% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Amiens 0.90 / Paris FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.819 / def 0.835 | Paris FC attack 0.979 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Amiens (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Paris FC xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Paris FC kick off?
Amiens vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Amiens 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Amiens vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Paris FC part of?
Amiens vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 34% chance of winning, Paris FC a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Amiens and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Amiens vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.82x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 60 games and Paris FC's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
34%
2.96
33%
3.04
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.80
0.89
Paris FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Amiens and 0.89 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 15D 23L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (24W 14D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.35 PPG, Paris FC on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Amiens's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 29 away games (11W 9D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.41 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Amiens or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Paris FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won Paris FC 3-0 Amiens.
Amiens's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Amiens
3
Draws
5
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 0, Paris FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2025: Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 45%, Paris FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Amiens and 34% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Paris FC in 38%; Amiens have failed to score in 28% of games; Paris FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Amiens's recent matches and 48% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Amiens's recent games and 34% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Amiens and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Paris FC finished level at 1-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.90 xG and Paris FC 0.89 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Paris FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 33%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.35 PPG, Paris FC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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