Concarneau 4-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bordeaux at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Concarneau vs Bordeaux encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Concarneau and Bordeaux meet at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat in Ligue 2 (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Concarneau have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Concarneau's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Concarneau are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bordeaux's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Bordeaux away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Bordeaux arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Bordeaux edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Concarneau 0–1 Bordeaux — a Bordeaux win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Concarneau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 39% versus Bordeaux 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 44% | Bordeaux 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.19 xG and Bordeaux 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.818 / defence 1.346 | Bordeaux attack 0.912 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bordeaux's projected output up. Data: built from Concarneau's last 36 games and Bordeaux's last 73.

Result probabilities: Concarneau 31% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 42%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.20 | Draw 3.69 | Bordeaux 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Concarneau 50% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights