PAU 1-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAU's home record at Stade Nouste Camp: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bastia have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for PAU, 1.60 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PAU have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bastia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 4–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 54% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 47% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.55 xG and Bastia 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.138 / defence 1.175 | Bastia attack 1.128 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Data: 74 PAU games / 74 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Bastia 37%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Bastia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 60% | Bastia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Bastia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG PAU 1.55 / Bastia 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.138 / def 1.175 | Bastia attack 1.128 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: PAU (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Bastia xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Bastia kick off?
PAU vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bastia?
PAU 1 - 2 Bastia.
Where is PAU vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bastia part of?
PAU vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 38% chance of winning, Bastia a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PAU and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
Record (5 meetings): PAU 2W | Draws 1 | Bastia 2W.
What form are PAU and Bastia in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.14x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.13x) against PAU's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
38%
2.61
25%
4.04
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
PAU xG
Total xG
3.07
1.52
Bastia xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are PAU and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for PAU and 1.52 for Bastia, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 74 games, going 25W 23D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.45 PPG from 74 outings (30W 17D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for PAU against 1.45 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 13W 12D 12L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.14 points per game from 37 outings (11W 9D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Bastia in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 25W 23D 26L in their last 74 games (1.32 PPG), while Bastia have gone 30W 17D 27L in their last 74 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Bastia away?
PAU's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.38 PPG; Bastia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have PAU or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 2-6 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
PAU
5
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 49%, Bastia 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (PAU) and 43% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: PAU have failed to score in 27% of games; Bastia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of PAU's recent matches and 49% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of PAU's recent games and 43% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Bastia tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bastia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat PAU 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat PAU 1-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.55 xG and Bastia 1.52 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.14 / defence 1.18 against Bastia attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Bastia 37%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 47%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Bastia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.