Bordeaux 3-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 38 as Bordeaux welcome PAU to Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bordeaux's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bordeaux are significantly better at Stade Matmut-Atlantique than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAU away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Bordeaux) versus 1.40 (PAU). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bordeaux, 1 for PAU and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
PAU trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 43% versus PAU 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 45% | PAU 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.75 xG and PAU 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.280 / defence 0.904 | PAU attack 1.186 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Bordeaux carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 74 Bordeaux games / 75 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 48% | Draw 25% | PAU 27%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 3.70. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bordeaux 30% | PAU 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 48% | Draw 25% | PAU 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Bordeaux 1.75 / PAU 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.280 / def 0.904 | PAU attack 1.186 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.25
PAU xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs PAU kick off?
Bordeaux vs PAU kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs PAU?
Bordeaux 3 - 2 PAU.
Where is Bordeaux vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs PAU part of?
Bordeaux vs PAU is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 48% chance of winning, PAU a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bordeaux and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 1 | PAU 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and PAU in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.02
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
3.01
1.25
PAU xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
5%
21.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.25 for PAU, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 33W 18D 23L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
PAU's form line: 25W 23D 26L from 74 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 1.58 PPG, PAU on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 2.00 PPG from 36 outings (21W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Bordeaux are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, PAU have gone 12W 11D 13L from 36 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.32 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and PAU in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 33W 18D 23L in their last 74 games (1.58 PPG), while PAU have gone 25W 23D 26L in their last 74 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or PAU away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.00 PPG; PAU away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, PAU in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2023, when PAU won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bordeaux's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Bordeaux 3-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and PAU?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 39%, PAU 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bordeaux) and 44% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 61% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bordeaux's recent games and 44% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and PAU tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, PAU in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out PAU 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat PAU 3-2 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.75 xG and PAU 1.25 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.28 / defence 0.90 against PAU attack 1.19 / defence 1.10, drawn from 74/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 48% | Draw 25% | PAU 27%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 45%, PAU 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.58 PPG, PAU 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.