Paris FC 2-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris FC and Guingamp meet at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade Charléty — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Paris FC against 1.60 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Paris FC lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 49% versus Guingamp 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 46% | Guingamp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.20 xG and Guingamp 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.174 / defence 0.919 | Guingamp attack 0.920 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Data: 74 Paris FC games / 74 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 41% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 29%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 70% | Guingamp 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 41% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Paris FC 1.20 / Guingamp 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.174 / def 0.919 | Guingamp attack 0.920 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Guingamp xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Guingamp kick off?
Paris FC vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Paris FC 2 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Paris FC vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Guingamp part of?
Paris FC vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 41% chance of winning, Guingamp a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Paris FC and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Guingamp?
Record (5 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Paris FC and Guingamp in?
Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.17x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.92x) against Paris FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.33
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.17
0.97
Guingamp xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.97 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris FC come into this having played 74 games, going 30W 20D 24L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.43 PPG from 74 outings (28W 22D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Paris FC against 1.43 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Paris FC's home form reads 17W 7D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.59 points per game from 37 outings (16W 11D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Paris FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Guingamp in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 30W 20D 24L in their last 74 games (1.49 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 28W 22D 24L in their last 74 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Guingamp in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Guingamp?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 49%, Guingamp 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Paris FC) and 38% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp in 38%; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Paris FC's recent matches and 49% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Paris FC's recent games and 38% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Guingamp tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Guingamp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Guingamp 2-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.20 xG and Guingamp 0.97 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.92 against Guingamp attack 0.92 / defence 0.83, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 41% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 29%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 46%, Guingamp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.49 PPG, Guingamp 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.