Boulogne 1-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Annecy at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Boulogne face Annecy.

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Analysis & Preview

Annecy travel to Stade de la Libération to take on Boulogne in Ligue 2 (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Boulogne — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Boulogne's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Annecy away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boulogne at 1.30 PPG versus Annecy's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Boulogne, 0 for Annecy and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2025, ended Boulogne 1–1 Annecy — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Boulogne in-play tendencies (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Annecy in-play tendencies (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 50% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 47% | Annecy 56%). Note also that Annecy surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Boulogne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.30 xG and Annecy 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.888 / defence 1.460 | Annecy attack 1.174 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Annecy's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Boulogne's projected output up. Boulogne's defence rating of 1.460 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Boulogne's last 32 games and Annecy's last 66.

Result probabilities: Boulogne 22% | Draw 24% | Annecy 54%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 4.60 | Draw 4.16 | Annecy 1.84. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.30 / 2.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Boulogne's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Boulogne 60% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 40% (last 10 away games).

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