Rodez 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Rodez against 2.00 for Saint Etienne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Rodez 2W, Saint Etienne 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–4 with Saint Etienne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 70% versus Saint Etienne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Saint Etienne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.39 xG and Saint Etienne 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.113 / defence 0.901 | Saint Etienne attack 0.774 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Data: 66 Rodez games / 32 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 47% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 21%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Saint Etienne 4.76. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 80% | Saint Etienne 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 47% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Rodez 1.39 / Saint Etienne 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.113 / def 0.901 | Saint Etienne attack 0.774 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Rodez (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Saint Etienne xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Rodez vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Rodez 2 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Rodez vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Saint Etienne part of?
Rodez vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 47% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rodez and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Saint Etienne?
Record (6 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 2 | Saint Etienne 2W.
What form are Rodez and Saint Etienne in?
Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.11x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.77x) against Rodez's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
47%
2.12
32%
3.14
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.25
0.86
Saint Etienne xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
5%
19.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rodez and 0.86 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez's recent record stands at 22W 25D 19L from 66 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 29L across 66 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Rodez against 1.32 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 13W 12D 8L from 33 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 9W 7D 17L across 33 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.39 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 22W 25D 19L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 25W 12D 29L in their last 66 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Saint Etienne away?
Rodez's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.55 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rodez
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Saint Etienne?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Saint Etienne?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 73%, Saint Etienne 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rodez) and 52% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Rodez's games and 46% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rodez's recent games and 52% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.39 xG and Saint Etienne 0.86 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against Saint Etienne attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 47% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 21%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 54%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.38 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.