Annecy 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Rodez travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.90 PPG versus Rodez's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Annecy register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rodez in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rodez, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Annecy.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rodez have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Rodez in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus Rodez 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 45% | Rodez 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.38 xG and Rodez 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.215 / defence 0.806 | Rodez attack 0.956 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. Data: 67 Annecy games / 67 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 44% | Draw 31% | Rodez 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Rodez 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 60% | Rodez 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 44% | Draw 31% | Rodez 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Annecy 1.38 / Rodez 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.215 / def 0.806 | Rodez attack 0.956 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Annecy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Rodez xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Rodez kick off?
Annecy vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Annecy 1 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Annecy vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Rodez part of?
Annecy vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 44% chance of winning, Rodez a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
Record (7 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 2 | Rodez 4W.
What form are Annecy and Rodez in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Annecy's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.20
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.35
0.97
Rodez xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Annecy and 0.97 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 29W 16D 22L from 67 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 23W 25D 19L across 67 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.54 PPG, Rodez on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 16W 10D 7L from 33 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 9W 13D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.48 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 70%.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Rodez in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 29W 16D 22L in their last 67 games (1.54 PPG), while Rodez have gone 23W 25D 19L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Rodez away?
Annecy's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.76 PPG; Rodez away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Annecy or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rodez in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Rodez runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
5
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
From 9 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Rodez have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 48%, Rodez 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Annecy) and 61% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Annecy's games and 67% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Annecy's recent games and 61% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Rodez tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rodez in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.38 xG and Rodez 0.97 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.22 / defence 0.81 against Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 44% | Draw 31% | Rodez 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Rodez win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 45%, Rodez 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.54 PPG, Rodez 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.