Annecy 0-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Auxerre at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Auxerre encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Annecy and Auxerre meet at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Annecy's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Annecy's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Auxerre have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Auxerre are 1.40 PPG clear of Annecy over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Annecy's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) — Annecy have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Auxerre in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Annecy, 1 for Auxerre and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Annecy 0–4 Auxerre — a Auxerre win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Annecy — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Auxerre — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Auxerre 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Auxerre 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Annecy surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Auxerre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.00 xG and Auxerre 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.790 / defence 1.249 | Auxerre attack 1.176 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Annecy's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Annecy's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 62 games and Auxerre's last 24.

Result probabilities: Annecy 23% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 52%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 4.27 | Draw 4.03 | Auxerre 1.93. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 60% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 80% (last 10 away games).

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