Auxerre 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Auxerre welcome Bastia to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Auxerre are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 0 for Bastia and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bastia in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 60% versus Bastia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.62 xG and Bastia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.227 / defence 0.971 | Bastia attack 1.041 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Data: 25 Auxerre games / 63 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 49% | Draw 25% | Bastia 26%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Bastia 3.85. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 60% | Bastia 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 49% | Draw 25% | Bastia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Auxerre 1.62 / Bastia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.227 / def 0.971 | Bastia attack 1.041 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bastia xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Bastia kick off?
Auxerre vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Bastia?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Auxerre vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Bastia part of?
Auxerre vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 49% chance of winning, Bastia a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Auxerre and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 2 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Bastia in?
Auxerre (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.23x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.05
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.74
1.12
Bastia xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
19.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.12 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 22W 19D 22L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 25W 15D 23L from 63 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.35 PPG, Bastia on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 8W 8D 15L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Bastia in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Bastia have gone 25W 15D 23L in their last 63 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Bastia away?
Auxerre's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.48 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Bastia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Auxerre's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
0
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Bastia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Auxerre 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Bastia?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 55%, Bastia 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Auxerre) and 42% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 26% of games; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Auxerre's recent matches and 45% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Auxerre's recent games and 42% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Bastia tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bastia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 26, as Auxerre and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.62 xG and Bastia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.23 / defence 0.97 against Bastia attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 49% | Draw 25% | Bastia 26%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.35 PPG, Bastia 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.