Guingamp 1-0 Caen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 44%, yet in-form Caen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Guingamp and Caen meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Guingamp (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Guingamp have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Caen have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Caen have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Caen arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Caen edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Guingamp 1–0 Caen — a Guingamp win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Caen half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Caen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 47% | Caen 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Guingamp surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Caen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.84 xG and Caen 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.065 / defence 1.348 | Caen attack 1.082 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Caen's defence rating of 1.392 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guingamp's projected output up. Guingamp's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Caen's projected output up. Data: built from Guingamp's last 62 games and Caen's last 62.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 44% | Draw 22% | Caen 34%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.29 | Draw 4.48 | Caen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Caen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Guingamp's last 10 home games and Caen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 50% (last 10 home games) | Caen 80% (last 10 away games).

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