Angers 0-3 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Stade Raymond Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Angers have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Angers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Angers's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Angers's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) — Angers have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Saint Etienne in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Angers, 2 for Saint Etienne and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2023, ended Angers 0–2 Saint Etienne — a Saint Etienne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 50% versus Saint Etienne 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 55% | Saint Etienne 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.29 xG and Saint Etienne 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.166 / defence 0.806 | Saint Etienne attack 0.809 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.084. Data: built from Angers's last 24 games and Saint Etienne's last 62.
Result probabilities: Angers 51% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 20%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.98 | Draw 3.45 | Saint Etienne 4.91. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Angers's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 20% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 51% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Angers 1.29 / Saint Etienne 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.166 / def 0.806 | Saint Etienne attack 0.809 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Angers (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Saint Etienne xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Angers vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Angers vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Angers 0 - 3 Saint Etienne.
Where is Angers vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Saint Etienne part of?
Angers vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 51% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Angers and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Angers vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Angers's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.81x) against Angers's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 24 games and Saint Etienne's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.45
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Angers xG
Total xG
2.00
0.71
Saint Etienne xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Angers and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Angers and 0.71 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 10D 34L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.47 PPG from 62 outings (25W 16D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 13W 4D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.44 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Angers vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 18W 10D 34L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Saint Etienne away?
Angers's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.43 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Angers or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Angers and Saint Etienne, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Angers 0-3 Saint Etienne on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Angers
2
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Saint Etienne?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Saint Etienne 3-3 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 60%, Saint Etienne 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Angers) and 53% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Saint Etienne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Angers's games and 63% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Angers and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Angers's matches and 53% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Angers and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Angers's recent matches and 63% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Angers 0-3 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.29 xG and Saint Etienne 0.71 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Angers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.17 / defence 0.81 against Saint Etienne attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 51% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 20%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 55%, Saint Etienne 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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