Nantes 1-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantes at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Nantes have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Clermont Foot managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Nantes winning.
The historical record gives Nantes a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 47% versus Clermont Foot 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 47% | Clermont Foot 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.29 xG and Clermont Foot 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.870 / defence 1.064 | Clermont Foot attack 0.946 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.029. Data: 55 Nantes games / 55 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 40% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Clermont Foot 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Nantes 40% | Clermont Foot 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 40% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Nantes 1.29 / Clermont Foot 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.870 / def 1.064 | Clermont Foot attack 0.946 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Nantes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Clermont Foot xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Nantes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Nantes 1 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Nantes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Nantes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 40% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nantes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
Record (5 meetings): Nantes 3W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Nantes and Clermont Foot in?
Nantes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.95x) against Nantes's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
40%
2.52
33%
3.04
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.33
1.04
Clermont Foot xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nantes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Nantes and 1.04 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 12W 18D 25L from 55 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 23L across 55 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Nantes against 1.27 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 8W 10D 9L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 9W 8D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 12W 18D 25L in their last 55 games (0.98 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.26 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nantes
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Nantes have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Nantes 1-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 41%, Clermont Foot 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nantes) and 52% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 41% of games; Clermont Foot in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Nantes's recent matches and 63% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nantes's recent games and 52% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Nantes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Nantes 1-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.29 xG and Clermont Foot 1.04 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Clermont Foot attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 40% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 27%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 47%, Clermont Foot 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 0.98 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.