Metz 0-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Metz take on Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Saint-Symphorien plays host to Metz versus Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Metz have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Saint-Symphorien — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Toulouse (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Metz, 1 for Toulouse and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 46% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 40% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.02 xG and Toulouse 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.687 / defence 1.093 | Toulouse attack 0.799 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.029. Metz's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Metz games / 55 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 35% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 28%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Toulouse 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Metz 40% | Toulouse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 35% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Metz 1.02 / Toulouse 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.687 / def 1.093 | Toulouse attack 0.799 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Toulouse xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Toulouse kick off?
Metz vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Toulouse?
Metz 0 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Metz vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Toulouse part of?
Metz vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 35% chance of winning, Toulouse a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Metz and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Metz and Toulouse in?
Metz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Metz's attack rating (0.69) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.80x) against Metz's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
37%
2.73
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Metz xG
Total xG
1.92
0.90
Toulouse xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Metz and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Metz and 0.90 for Toulouse, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Metz have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 24W 16D 15L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 15W 17D 23L from 55 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Metz are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 7W 6D 14L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.20 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Metz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 24W 16D 15L in their last 55 games (1.60 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 15W 17D 23L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Toulouse away?
Metz's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.59 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Metz or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Toulouse in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Toulouse go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Metz
0
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Toulouse?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 0, Toulouse have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Metz 3-4 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 37%, Toulouse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Metz) and 59% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 33% of games; Toulouse in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Metz's recent matches and 52% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Metz's recent games and 59% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Toulouse tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Metz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Metz 0-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.02 xG and Toulouse 0.90 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Metz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.69 / defence 1.09 against Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 35% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 40%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.