Metz 0-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Metz take on Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Saint-Symphorien plays host to Metz versus Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Metz have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Toulouse (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Metz, 1 for Toulouse and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Metz 0–3 Toulouse — a Toulouse win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 46% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 40% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.02 xG and Toulouse 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.687 / defence 1.093 | Toulouse attack 0.799 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.029. Metz's attack rating of 0.687 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Toulouse's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Metz's last 17 games and Toulouse's last 55.
Result probabilities: Metz 35% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 28%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.86 | Draw 2.73 | Toulouse 3.53. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Metz's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Metz 40% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 35% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Metz 1.02 / Toulouse 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.687 / def 1.093 | Toulouse attack 0.799 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Toulouse xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Metz vs Toulouse kick off?
Metz vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Toulouse?
Metz 0 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Metz vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Toulouse part of?
Metz vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 35% chance of winning, Toulouse a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Metz and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Metz vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Metz's attack rating (0.69) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.80x) against Metz's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 17 games and Toulouse's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
37%
2.73
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Metz xG
Total xG
1.92
0.90
Toulouse xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Metz and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Metz and 0.90 for Toulouse, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Metz have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 24W 16D 15L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 15W 17D 23L from 55 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Metz are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 7W 6D 14L from their last 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Metz are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.20 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Metz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Metz (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Metz vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 24W 16D 15L in their last 55 games (1.60 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 15W 17D 23L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Toulouse away?
Metz's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.59 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Metz or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Toulouse in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Metz and Toulouse, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Toulouse have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won Toulouse 4-0 Metz on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Metz
0
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Toulouse?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 0, Toulouse have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Metz 3-4 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Metz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 37%, Toulouse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Metz) and 59% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 33% of games; Toulouse in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Metz's recent matches and 52% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metz and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Metz's recent games and 59% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Metz's recent matches and 67% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Metz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Metz 0-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.02 xG and Toulouse 0.90 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Metz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.69 / defence 1.09 against Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 35% | Draw 37% | Toulouse 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 40%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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