Monaco 1-3 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Louis-II to face Monaco in Ligue 1 (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Monaco (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Monaco's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Reims's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reims away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Monaco. A 0.60 PPG lead over Reims (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Monaco, 2 for Reims and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Monaco 3–1 Reims — a Monaco win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Monaco goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 60% versus Reims 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 64% | Reims 49%). Note also that Reims surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Monaco recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.68 xG and Reims 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.111 / defence 0.879 | Reims attack 1.046 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.025. Data: built from Monaco's last 55 games and Reims's last 55.
Result probabilities: Monaco 53% | Draw 28% | Reims 19%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.90 | Draw 3.52 | Reims 5.25. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Monaco 30% (last 10 home games) | Reims 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 53% | Draw 28% | Reims 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Monaco 1.68 / Reims 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.111 / def 0.879 | Reims attack 1.046 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Monaco (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Reims xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monaco vs Reims FAQs
What time does Monaco vs Reims kick off?
Monaco vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Reims?
Monaco 1 - 3 Reims.
Where is Monaco vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Reims part of?
Monaco vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 53% chance of winning, Reims a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monaco and Reims will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Monaco vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.11) and Reims's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.05x) against Monaco's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Monaco's last 55 games and Reims's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.52
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.62
0.94
Reims xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
4%
28.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monaco vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Monaco and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Monaco and 0.94 for Reims, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monaco's recent record stands at 29W 11D 15L from 55 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 18L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Monaco against 1.40 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 15W 3D 9L from their last 27 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 7W 11D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monaco are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Reims
Blended
Monaco (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monaco
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Monaco vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Monaco and Reims in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 29W 11D 15L in their last 55 games (1.78 PPG), while Reims have gone 20W 17D 18L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Reims away?
Monaco's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.78 PPG; Reims away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Monaco or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Reims in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Monaco and Reims, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won Reims 0-3 Monaco on 18 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Monaco
2
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Monaco vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Reims?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Monaco have won 3, Reims have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2025: Monaco 3-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 56%, Reims 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Monaco) and 44% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monaco vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monaco and Reims matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Monaco's recent matches and 52% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monaco and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Monaco's recent games and 44% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Monaco's recent matches and 63% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Monaco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Monaco 1-3 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.68 xG and Reims 0.94 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Reims outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Reims attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 53% | Draw 28% | Reims 19%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Reims win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 64%, Reims 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.78 PPG, Reims 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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