Clermont Foot 1-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Clermont Foot face Strasbourg.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Clermont Foot and Strasbourg meet at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Clermont Foot have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Strasbourg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Strasbourg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Strasbourg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Clermont Foot 0–0 Strasbourg — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Strasbourg 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Strasbourg 54%). Note also that Strasbourg surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Clermont Foot recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.88 xG and Strasbourg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.667 / defence 1.171 | Strasbourg attack 0.973 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.049. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 56 games and Strasbourg's last 56.

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 41%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Strasbourg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Strasbourg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 20% (last 10 home games) | Strasbourg 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights