Clermont Foot 1-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Strasbourg at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Strasbourg meet at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Strasbourg's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 2 for Strasbourg and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Strasbourg 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Strasbourg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.88 xG and Strasbourg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.667 / defence 1.171 | Strasbourg attack 0.973 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.049. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Clermont Foot games / 56 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 41%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Strasbourg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 20% | Strasbourg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Clermont Foot 0.88 / Strasbourg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.667 / def 1.171 | Strasbourg attack 0.973 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Strasbourg xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg part of?
Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 25% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Clermont Foot and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Strasbourg?
Record (5 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 3 | Strasbourg 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Strasbourg in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Strasbourg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.67x the league average against Strasbourg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (0.97x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
25%
4.00
34%
2.94
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.08
1.20
Strasbourg xG
4.00
25%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.20 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 20W 13D 23L from 56 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 22L across 56 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.14 for Strasbourg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 10W 5D 13L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 6W 9D 13L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.25 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 68%.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 20W 13D 23L in their last 56 games (1.30 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 15W 19D 22L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Strasbourg away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.25 PPG; Strasbourg away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
4
Draws
2
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Strasbourg?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Strasbourg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 39%, Strasbourg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Clermont Foot) and 54% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 68% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 54% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Strasbourg finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.88 xG and Strasbourg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.67 / defence 1.17 against Strasbourg attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 41%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Strasbourg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Strasbourg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.30 PPG, Strasbourg 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.