Ilves 3-2 VPS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ilves at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ilves face VPS.

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Fixture Analysis

Ilves welcome VPS to Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 21 July 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Ilves — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ilves at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, VPS stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, VPS have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Ilves) versus 1.20 (VPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Ilves's games and 60% of VPS's (from Ilves's last 10 home games and VPS's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Ilves have won 1, VPS 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jun 2024, ended Ilves 1–1 VPS — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Ilves in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

VPS in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 54% versus VPS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 51% | VPS 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.03 xG and VPS 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.385 / defence 0.937 | VPS attack 0.948 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.445. Ilves carry an above-average attack rating of 1.385 — their 2.03 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ilves's last 38 games and VPS's last 37.

Result probabilities: Ilves 53% | Draw 24% | VPS 22%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.88 | Draw 4.10 | VPS 4.45. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ilves's last 10 home games and VPS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ilves 60% (last 10 home games) | VPS 60% (last 10 away games).

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