Haka 4-3 Ilves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Haka at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Ilves travel to Tehtaan kenttä to take on Haka. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 July 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tehtaan kenttä.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haka at 1.90 PPG versus Ilves's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Haka have won 3, Ilves 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 0–5 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ilves in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 61% versus Ilves 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 56% | Ilves 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.16 xG and Ilves 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.028 / defence 0.794 | Ilves attack 0.944 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.417. Ilves's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Haka's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Haka games / 37 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 36% | Draw 33% | Ilves 31%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Ilves 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Haka 50% | Ilves 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Monday 15 Jul 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 36% | Draw 33% | Ilves 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Haka 1.16 / Ilves 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.028 / def 0.794 | Ilves attack 0.944 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Haka (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ilves xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Ilves kick off?
Haka vs Ilves kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 15 July 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Ilves?
Haka 4 - 3 Ilves.
Where is Haka vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Ilves part of?
Haka vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 36% chance of winning, Ilves a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Haka and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
Record (6 meetings): Haka 3W | Draws 2 | Ilves 1W.
What form are Haka and Ilves in?
Haka (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Ilves (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haka's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
36%
2.76
33%
3.06
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Haka xG
Total xG
2.22
1.06
Ilves xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Haka and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Haka and 1.06 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 14D 13L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (15W 13D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.37 PPG, Ilves on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 8W 11D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.56 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Ilves in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 14W 14D 13L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while Ilves have gone 15W 13D 13L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Ilves away?
Haka's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.75 PPG; Ilves away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Haka or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ilves in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2025, when Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 70%, Ilves 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Haka) and 35% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 35%; Ilves in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Haka's games and 40% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Haka's recent games and 35% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Ilves tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ilves in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haka edge out Ilves 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Ilves 4-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.16 xG and Ilves 1.06 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ilves outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Ilves attack 0.94 / defence 0.74, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 36% | Draw 33% | Ilves 31%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 56%, Ilves 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.37 PPG, Ilves 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.