VPS 2-3 EIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs EIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lemonsoft Stadion plays host to VPS versus EIF in Veikkausliiga (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 6 July 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
VPS (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
VPS at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
EIF's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, EIF have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 away fixtures (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward VPS. A 0.70 PPG lead over EIF (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from VPS's last 10 home games and EIF's last 7 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of VPS's games and 86% of EIF's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for VPS, 0 for EIF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2024, ended VPS 2–1 EIF — a VPS win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
VPS — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
EIF — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 85% and EIF 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VPS 69% | EIF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 2.11 xG and EIF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.057 / defence 1.005 | EIF attack 0.881 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.274. EIF's defence rating of 1.274 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VPS's projected output up. Data: built from VPS's last 36 games and EIF's last 13.
Result probabilities: VPS 58% | Draw 23% | EIF 18%. Fair-value odds: VPS 1.71 | Draw 4.27 | EIF 5.52. The model has a clear lean to VPS (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.11 / 1.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (VPS's last 10 home games and EIF's last 7 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VPS 80% (last 10 home games) | EIF 86% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs EIF | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 14 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 July 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 58% | Draw 23% | EIF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG VPS 2.11 / EIF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.057 / def 1.005 | EIF attack 0.881 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: VPS (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.13
EIF xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VPS vs EIF FAQs
What time does VPS vs EIF kick off?
VPS vs EIF kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 July 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs EIF?
VPS 2 - 3 EIF.
Where is VPS vs EIF being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs EIF part of?
VPS vs EIF is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 14) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs EIF?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 58% chance of winning, EIF a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs EIF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VPS and EIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VPS vs EIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
VPS's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against EIF's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — EIF's attack (0.88x) against VPS's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from VPS's last 36 games and EIF's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.27
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
VPS xG
Total xG
3.24
1.13
EIF xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
2%
45.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VPS vs EIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs EIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are VPS and EIF expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for VPS and 1.13 for EIF, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs EIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, VPS have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 6W 4D 3L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
EIF's form line: 2W 3D 8L from 13 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, VPS are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against EIF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VPS have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 7 home games (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, EIF have gone 1W 1D 5L from their last 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VPS are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; EIF are on 1.00 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games; EIF in 77%.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
EIF
Blended
VPS (Home) vs EIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VPS
Blended
EIF
Blended
❓ VPS vs EIF Form FAQs
What form are VPS and EIF in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while EIF have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or EIF away?
VPS's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.71 PPG; EIF away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between VPS and EIF, the earliest from June 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 6 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
VPS
0
Draws
1
EIF
Recent Meetings
❓ VPS vs EIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and EIF?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, VPS have won 1, EIF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VPS and EIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 July 2024: VPS 2-3 EIF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
EIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for VPS, 86% for EIF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for VPS and 86% for EIF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / EIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VPS vs EIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VPS and EIF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of VPS's games and 86% of EIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VPS and EIF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of VPS's matches and 86% of EIF's.
Do VPS and EIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of VPS's recent matches and 86% of EIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as EIF defy the odds to beat VPS 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
EIF beat VPS 2-3 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 2.11 xG and EIF 1.13 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. EIF outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against EIF attack 0.88 / defence 1.27, drawn from 36/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 58% | Draw 23% | EIF 18%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a EIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 69%, EIF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
EIF's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with EIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VPS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. EIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.