VPS 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VPS face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Mariehamn travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS in Veikkausliiga (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, VPS have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, VPS have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — VPS are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mariehamn stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Mariehamn away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VPS 1.20 PPG, Mariehamn 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for VPS, 0 for Mariehamn and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Jun 2024, ended VPS 0–0 Mariehamn — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Mariehamn trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 54% versus Mariehamn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 57% | Mariehamn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.57 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.032 / defence 1.037 | Mariehamn attack 0.820 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.510. Data: built from VPS's last 38 games and Mariehamn's last 37.
Result probabilities: VPS 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 30%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.34 | Draw 3.64 | Mariehamn 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (VPS's last 10 home games and Mariehamn's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VPS 80% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 17 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG VPS 1.57 / Mariehamn 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.032 / def 1.037 | Mariehamn attack 0.820 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.510 • Poisson stance: VPS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mariehamn xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VPS vs Mariehamn FAQs
What time does VPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
VPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
VPS 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is VPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Mariehamn part of?
VPS vs Mariehamn is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 17) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 43% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VPS and Mariehamn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VPS's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VPS's last 38 games and Mariehamn's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.64
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
VPS xG
Total xG
2.86
1.28
Mariehamn xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VPS vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are VPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for VPS and 1.28 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 24W 7D 13L from 44 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 22L across 44 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours VPS by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 11W 5D 5L from their last 21 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 5W 5D 11L across their last 21 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
VPS (Home) vs Mariehamn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ VPS vs Mariehamn Form FAQs
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 24W 7D 13L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 10W 12D 22L in their last 44 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Mariehamn away?
VPS's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.81 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.95 PPG.
Have VPS or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 4 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won Mariehamn 1-5 VPS.
VPS's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ VPS vs Mariehamn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VPS have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 July 2026: VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Mariehamn?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 62%, Mariehamn 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (VPS) and 52% (Mariehamn).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VPS vs Mariehamn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VPS and Mariehamn matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of VPS's games and 62% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VPS and Mariehamn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of VPS's recent games and 52% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Mariehamn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of VPS's recent matches and 81% of Mariehamn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.57 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Mariehamn attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 30%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 57%, Mariehamn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Mariehamn's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.