Crewe 0-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crewe face Harrogate Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Crewe welcome Harrogate Town to Mornflake Stadium in League Two (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Crewe — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Crewe have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Harrogate Town stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Crewe) versus 2.00 (Harrogate Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Crewe have won 2, Harrogate Town 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Crewe 1–0 Harrogate Town — a Crewe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town trading profile (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 52% versus Harrogate Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 49% | Harrogate Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 2.09 xG and Harrogate Town 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.081 / defence 1.022 | Harrogate Town attack 1.068 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.356. Harrogate Town's defence rating of 1.304 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crewe's projected output up. Data: built from Crewe's last 78 games and Harrogate Town's last 77.
Result probabilities: Crewe 51% | Draw 22% | Harrogate Town 27%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 1.94 | Draw 4.60 | Harrogate Town 3.73. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.09 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crewe's last 10 home games and Harrogate Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crewe 50% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 34 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 51% | Draw 22% | Harrogate Town 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Crewe 2.09 / Harrogate Town 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.081 / def 1.022 | Harrogate Town attack 1.068 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Crewe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Harrogate Town xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crewe vs Harrogate Town FAQs
What time does Crewe vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Crewe vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Crewe 0 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is Crewe vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Harrogate Town part of?
Crewe vs Harrogate Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 51% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Crewe and Harrogate Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crewe vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.08x the league average against Harrogate Town's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crewe's last 78 games and Harrogate Town's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
51%
1.94
22%
4.60
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Crewe xG
Total xG
3.57
1.48
Harrogate Town xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
3%
30.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crewe vs Harrogate Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Crewe and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Crewe and 1.48 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crewe come into this having played 77 games, going 29W 25D 23L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.29 PPG from 77 outings (26W 21D 30L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.45 PPG, Harrogate Town on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crewe's home form reads 21W 9D 9L across their last 39 home games, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Crewe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 39 away games (14W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Crewe (Home) vs Harrogate Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crewe
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Crewe vs Harrogate Town Form FAQs
What form are Crewe and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 29W 25D 23L in their last 77 games (1.45 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 26W 21D 30L in their last 77 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Harrogate Town away?
Crewe's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.85 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2022, when Crewe won Crewe 3-0 Harrogate Town.
Crewe's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Crewe
4
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Crewe vs Harrogate Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Harrogate Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Crewe have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Harrogate Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Crewe 1-1 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Harrogate Town?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 37% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 54%, Harrogate Town 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crewe) and 56% (Harrogate Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crewe vs Harrogate Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crewe and Harrogate Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Crewe's games and 59% of Harrogate Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crewe and Harrogate Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Crewe's matches and 56% of Harrogate Town's.
Do Crewe and Harrogate Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Crewe's recent matches and 67% of Harrogate Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crewe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe and Harrogate Town finished level at 0-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 2.09 xG and Harrogate Town 1.48 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crewe fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Harrogate Town landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Harrogate Town attack 1.07 / defence 1.30, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 51% | Draw 22% | Harrogate Town 27%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 49%, Harrogate Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.45 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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