Bradford 1-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sutton Utd make the trip to University of Bradford Stadium to face Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bradford's overall League Two record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at University of Bradford Stadium, Bradford have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium.
Sutton Utd (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sutton Utd have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Bradford, 1 for Sutton Utd and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Sutton Utd winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bradford — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sutton Utd — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 50% versus Sutton Utd 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 44% | Sutton Utd 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.69 xG and Sutton Utd 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.925 / defence 0.862 | Sutton Utd attack 0.700 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.356. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Bradford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 78 Bradford games / 78 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 58% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 17%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Sutton Utd 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bradford (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bradford at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 50% | Sutton Utd 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 58% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Bradford 1.69 / Sutton Utd 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.925 / def 0.862 | Sutton Utd attack 0.700 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Bradford (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sutton Utd xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Bradford vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Sutton Utd?
Bradford 1 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Bradford vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Sutton Utd part of?
Bradford vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 58% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bradford and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Sutton Utd?
Record (5 meetings): Bradford 3W | Draws 1 | Sutton Utd 1W.
What form are Bradford and Sutton Utd in?
Bradford (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.93x the league average against Sutton Utd's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.70x) against Bradford's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.03
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.51
0.82
Sutton Utd xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
31.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bradford and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bradford and 0.82 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Sutton Utd?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 78 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 32W 25D 21L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sutton Utd's form line: 19W 23D 36L from 78 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sutton Utd.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.61 PPG from 38 outings (15W 16D 7L).
On the road, Sutton Utd have gone 5W 12D 21L from 38 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bradford are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 32W 25D 21L in their last 78 games (1.55 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 19W 23D 36L in their last 78 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Sutton Utd away?
Bradford's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.61 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Bradford or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bradford won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 4, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Bradford 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Sutton Utd?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 58%, Sutton Utd 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bradford) and 50% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sutton Utd in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Sutton Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bradford's games and 55% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bradford's recent games and 50% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Sutton Utd 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Sutton Utd 1-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.69 xG and Sutton Utd 0.82 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sutton Utd landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Sutton Utd attack 0.70 / defence 1.23, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 58% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 17%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Sutton Utd 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.