Notts County 1-3 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Crewe at Meadow Lane in League Two, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Notts County — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Notts County's home record at Meadow Lane: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crewe have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Crewe are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Notts County register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Crewe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Notts County have won 0, Crewe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Crewe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Crewe in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Notts County 72% and Crewe 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 72% | Crewe 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.56 xG and Crewe 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.265 / defence 1.145 | Crewe attack 1.128 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.316. Notts County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Notts County games / 79 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 35% | Draw 24% | Crewe 41%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Crewe 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Crewe 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 35% | Draw 24% | Crewe 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Notts County 1.56 / Crewe 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.265 / def 1.145 | Crewe attack 1.128 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Crewe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Crewe xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Crewe kick off?
Notts County vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Crewe?
Notts County 1 - 3 Crewe.
Where is Notts County vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Crewe part of?
Notts County vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 35% chance of winning, Crewe a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Notts County and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crewe?
Record (1 meetings): Notts County 0W | Draws 0 | Crewe 1W.
What form are Notts County and Crewe in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Crewe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Notts County's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
35%
2.87
24%
4.09
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Notts County xG
Total xG
3.26
1.70
Crewe xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
6%
15.65
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Notts County and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Notts County and 1.70 for Crewe, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County's recent record stands at 14W 5D 13L from 32 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 7L across 32 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.47 PPG, Crewe on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 10W 1D 4L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Notts County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Crewe's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.78 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Crewe in 62%.
Last 32 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Crewe in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 14W 5D 13L in their last 32 games (1.47 PPG), while Crewe have gone 16W 9D 7L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Crewe away?
Notts County's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 2.07 PPG; Crewe away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Notts County's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Notts County
1
Draws
4
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crewe?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, Crewe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Notts County 1-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Notts County at 73%, Crewe at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Notts County and 53% for Crewe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Notts County's games and 67% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Notts County's matches and 53% of Crewe's.
Do Notts County and Crewe tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Crewe in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Notts County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Notts County 1-3 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.56 xG and Crewe 1.70 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.26 / defence 1.15 against Crewe attack 1.13 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 35% | Draw 24% | Crewe 41%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 72%, Crewe 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.47 PPG, Crewe 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.