Stockport County 1-3 Crewe – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Crewe.

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Match Analysis

Stockport County host Crewe at Edgeley Park in League Two (matchday 33). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stockport County's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Crewe stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Crewe's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 1.90 PPG versus Crewe's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Crewe and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Stockport County 2–0 Crewe — a Stockport County win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Stockport County trading profile (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 36 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Crewe trading profile (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 51% versus Crewe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 44% | Crewe 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stockport County surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Crewe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Crewe surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.68 xG and Crewe 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.278 / defence 0.739 | Crewe attack 1.021 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.320. Stockport County carry an above-average attack rating of 1.278 — their 1.68 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Stockport County have a tight defence (rating 0.739), which is pulling Crewe's projected output down. Data: built from Stockport County's last 76 games and Crewe's last 77.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 53% | Draw 25% | Crewe 22%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.89 | Draw 3.99 | Crewe 4.54. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 40% (last 10 home games) | Crewe 60% (last 10 away games).

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