Swansea 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Sunderland meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Swansea 2W, Sunderland 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 3–1 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 58% versus Sunderland 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 57% | Sunderland 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.16 xG and Sunderland 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.940 / defence 1.089 | Sunderland attack 1.148 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.219. Data: 60 Swansea games / 60 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 29% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 46%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Sunderland 2.17. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 70% | Sunderland 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 29% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Swansea 1.16 / Sunderland 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.940 / def 1.089 | Sunderland attack 1.148 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sunderland xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Sunderland kick off?
Swansea vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Sunderland?
Swansea 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Swansea vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Sunderland part of?
Swansea vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 29% chance of winning, Sunderland a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Swansea and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): Swansea 2W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Swansea and Sunderland in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Sunderland (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Swansea's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.15x) against Swansea's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
29%
3.47
25%
3.93
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.68
1.52
Sunderland xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
6%
15.92
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Swansea and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Swansea and 1.52 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Swansea come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 15D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.50 PPG from 60 outings (25W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Swansea against 1.50 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Swansea's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Swansea are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.50 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.50 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Swansea or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Swansea
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Sunderland?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 57%, Sunderland 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Swansea) and 53% (Sunderland). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Swansea's games and 53% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swansea vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Swansea's matches and 53% of Sunderland's.
Do Swansea and Sunderland tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Swansea's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea and Sunderland finished level at 0-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.16 xG and Sunderland 1.52 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Swansea fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Sunderland attack 1.15 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 29% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 46%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 57%, Sunderland 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sunderland's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.40 PPG, Sunderland 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.