Blackburn 0-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Blackburn face Swansea.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Swansea travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn in Championship (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Blackburn stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Blackburn's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Swansea — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Swansea have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Blackburn) versus 1.30 (Swansea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Blackburn's games and 60% of Swansea's (from Blackburn's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Blackburn, 1 for Swansea and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Blackburn 1–0 Swansea — a Blackburn win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Blackburn trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Swansea trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 46% versus Swansea 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 49% | Swansea 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.29 xG and Swansea 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.954 / defence 1.075 | Swansea attack 1.128 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.224. Data: built from Blackburn's last 59 games and Swansea's last 59.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Swansea 42%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 3.05 | Draw 3.94 | Swansea 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Blackburn's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Blackburn 70% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 14 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Swansea 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Blackburn 1.29 / Swansea 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.954 / def 1.075 | Swansea attack 1.128 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Swansea (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Swansea xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Blackburn vs Swansea kick off?
Blackburn vs Swansea kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Swansea?
Blackburn 0 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Blackburn vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Swansea part of?
Blackburn vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 33% chance of winning, Swansea a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Blackburn and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Blackburn vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 0.95x the league average against Swansea's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Blackburn's last 59 games and Swansea's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
33%
3.05
25%
3.94
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.77
1.48
Swansea xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.48 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn's recent record stands at 26W 10D 23L from 59 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 22L across 59 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.49 PPG, Swansea on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 16W 4D 9L from their last 29 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.47 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Swansea
Blended
Blackburn (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Blackburn
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Blackburn and Swansea in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 26W 10D 23L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Swansea have gone 22W 15D 22L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Swansea away?
Blackburn's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.79 PPG; Swansea away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Swansea in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swansea have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Oct 2026, when Swansea won Swansea 4-0 Blackburn.
Blackburn's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Blackburn
0
Draws
7
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Swansea?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Blackburn have won 3, Swansea have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Swansea 4-0 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 48%, Swansea 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Blackburn) and 55% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Blackburn and Swansea matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Blackburn's games and 62% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Blackburn and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Blackburn's recent games and 55% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Blackburn's recent matches and 79% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.29 xG and Swansea 1.48 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Swansea attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Swansea 42%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 49%, Swansea 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.49 PPG, Swansea 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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