Sunderland 3-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Birmingham make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Championship (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sunderland have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Birmingham have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Birmingham away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sunderland. A 0.80 PPG lead over Birmingham (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Birmingham and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Sunderland 2–1 Birmingham — a Sunderland win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Birmingham — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 56% versus Birmingham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 57% | Birmingham 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.73 xG and Birmingham 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.116 / defence 1.068 | Birmingham attack 0.718 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.224. Birmingham's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Sunderland's last 61 games and Birmingham's last 61.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 56% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 20%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.78 | Draw 4.23 | Birmingham 4.94. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 60% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 56% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sunderland 1.73 / Birmingham 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.116 / def 1.068 | Birmingham attack 0.718 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Birmingham xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Birmingham kick off?
Sunderland vs Birmingham kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Sunderland 3 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Sunderland vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Birmingham part of?
Sunderland vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 56% chance of winning, Birmingham a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Birmingham will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sunderland vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.72x) against Sunderland's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 61 games and Birmingham's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.23
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.67
0.94
Birmingham xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
4%
27.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.94 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sunderland come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 16D 20L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.18 PPG from 61 outings (19W 15D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Sunderland against 1.18 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sunderland's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sunderland are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
Sunderland (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Sunderland vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 25W 16D 20L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 19W 15D 27L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Birmingham away?
Sunderland's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.47 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Birmingham in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Sunderland and Birmingham, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sunderland
0
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Birmingham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 3, Birmingham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Birmingham 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Birmingham?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 60%, Birmingham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Sunderland) and 40% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sunderland's recent matches and 47% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Sunderland's recent games and 40% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 77% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Birmingham 3-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.73 xG and Birmingham 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Birmingham attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 56% | Draw 24% | Birmingham 20%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 57%, Birmingham 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Birmingham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.49 PPG, Birmingham 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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