Stoke City 0-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stoke City and Cardiff meet at bet365 Stadium in Championship (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Stoke City (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cardiff have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cardiff's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Cardiff arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Cardiff edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Stoke City 1–1 Cardiff — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stoke City half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 40% versus Cardiff 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stoke City 42% | Cardiff 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.15 xG and Cardiff 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.888 / defence 0.958 | Cardiff attack 1.050 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.219. Data: built from Stoke City's last 60 games and Cardiff's last 60.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 34% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 38%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.91 | Draw 3.60 | Cardiff 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stoke City 40% (last 10 home games) | Cardiff 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, matchday 15 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 34% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Stoke City 1.15 / Cardiff 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.888 / def 0.958 | Cardiff attack 1.050 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cardiff xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs Cardiff FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs Cardiff kick off?
Stoke City vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Cardiff?
Stoke City 0 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Stoke City vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Cardiff part of?
Stoke City vs Cardiff is a Championship fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 34% chance of winning, Cardiff a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stoke City and Cardiff will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Stoke City vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (0.89) and Cardiff's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.05x) against Stoke City's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 60 games and Cardiff's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.60
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.38
1.23
Cardiff xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs Cardiff Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.23 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stoke City's recent record stands at 20W 12D 28L from 60 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 28L across 60 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Stoke City against 1.20 for Cardiff. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 10W 5D 15L from their last 30 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 9W 4D 17L across their last 30 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stoke City are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.07 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
Stoke City (Home) vs Cardiff (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Stoke City vs Cardiff Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 20W 12D 28L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 20W 12D 28L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Cardiff away?
Stoke City's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.17 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 0W 4D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Stoke City
6
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs Cardiff H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Cardiff?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 1, Cardiff have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Cardiff last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 37%, Cardiff 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stoke City) and 47% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Stoke City have failed to score in 43% of games; Cardiff in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs Cardiff Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and Cardiff matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Stoke City's recent matches and 37% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stoke City and Cardiff matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stoke City's recent games and 47% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Cardiff matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Stoke City's recent matches and 60% of Cardiff's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stoke City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Stoke City and Cardiff drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.15 xG and Cardiff 1.23 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stoke City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cardiff landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Cardiff attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 34% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 38%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Cardiff 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cardiff's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.20 PPG, Cardiff 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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