Plymouth 2-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plymouth welcome Sunderland to Home Park in Championship (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Plymouth have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Plymouth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sunderland stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sunderland's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Sunderland's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Plymouth's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Sunderland and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2022, ended Plymouth 0–0 Sunderland — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sunderland in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 56% versus Sunderland 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | Sunderland 58%). Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Plymouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.52 xG and Sunderland 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.327 / defence 1.244 | Sunderland attack 1.028 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.214. Plymouth carry an above-average attack rating of 1.327 — their 1.52 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sunderland's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 16 games and Sunderland's last 62.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 37% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 39%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.69 | Draw 4.14 | Sunderland 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plymouth 50% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 17 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 37% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Plymouth 1.52 / Sunderland 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.327 / def 1.244 | Sunderland attack 1.028 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sunderland xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Sunderland kick off?
Plymouth vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Plymouth 2 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Plymouth vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Sunderland part of?
Plymouth vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 37% chance of winning, Sunderland a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Plymouth and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 16 games and Sunderland's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
37%
2.69
24%
4.14
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.08
1.55
Sunderland xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.55 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 35W 12D 15L from 62 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 20L across 62 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.89 PPG, Sunderland on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 24W 2D 5L from their last 31 home games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sunderland's away record stands at 13W 8D 10L across their last 31 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.50 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
Plymouth (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Plymouth vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 35W 12D 15L in their last 62 games (1.89 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 26W 16D 20L in their last 62 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Sunderland away?
Plymouth's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.39 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plymouth's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Sunderland?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Sunderland 2-2 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 48%, Sunderland 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plymouth) and 52% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sunderland in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Plymouth's recent matches and 52% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Plymouth's recent games and 52% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Plymouth's recent matches and 74% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Sunderland 2-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.52 xG and Sunderland 1.55 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sunderland landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.33 / defence 1.24 against Sunderland attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 37% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 39%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, Sunderland 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sunderland's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.89 PPG, Sunderland 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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