Blackburn 1-2 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Blackburn face Preston.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ewood Park plays host to Blackburn versus Preston in Championship (matchday 16). Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Blackburn have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Blackburn have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Preston's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Preston away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Blackburn, 1.20 for Preston — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Blackburn 1–1 Preston — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Blackburn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 46% versus Preston 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 49% | Preston 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.33 xG and Preston 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.872 / defence 1.058 | Preston attack 0.878 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.219. Data: built from Blackburn's last 61 games and Preston's last 61.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 41% | Draw 27% | Preston 32%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.43 | Draw 3.69 | Preston 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Blackburn 70% (last 10 home games) | Preston 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Preston | Competition: Championship, matchday 16 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 41% | Draw 27% | Preston 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Blackburn 1.33 / Preston 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.872 / def 1.058 | Preston attack 0.878 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Preston xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Blackburn vs Preston FAQs
What time does Blackburn vs Preston kick off?
Blackburn vs Preston kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 10 November 2023 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Preston?
Blackburn 1 - 2 Preston.
Where is Blackburn vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Preston part of?
Blackburn vs Preston is a Championship fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 41% chance of winning, Preston a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Blackburn and Preston will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Blackburn vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 0.87x the league average against Preston's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.88x) against Blackburn's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Blackburn's last 61 games and Preston's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.69
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.46
1.13
Preston xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Blackburn vs Preston Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.13 for Preston, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Blackburn have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 27W 10D 24L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Preston's form line: 24W 16D 21L from 61 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Blackburn against 1.44 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Blackburn have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 4D 10L).
On the road, Preston have gone 12W 7D 11L from their last 30 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Blackburn are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Preston
Blended
Blackburn (Home) vs Preston (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Blackburn
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Blackburn vs Preston Form FAQs
What form are Blackburn and Preston in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 27W 10D 24L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Preston have gone 24W 16D 21L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Preston away?
Blackburn's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.73 PPG; Preston away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Preston in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won Preston 1-4 Blackburn on 25 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackburn have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Blackburn
3
Draws
3
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Blackburn vs Preston H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Preston?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Blackburn have won 4, Preston have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Preston last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Preston 2-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Preston?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Preston see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 47%, Preston 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Blackburn) and 43% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Preston in 40%; Preston in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Blackburn vs Preston Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Blackburn and Preston matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Blackburn's recent matches and 40% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Blackburn and Preston matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Blackburn's recent games and 43% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Preston matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Blackburn's recent matches and 47% of Preston's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Preston defy the odds to beat Blackburn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Blackburn 1-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.33 xG and Preston 1.13 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Preston outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Preston attack 0.88 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 41% | Draw 27% | Preston 32%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Preston win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 49%, Preston 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Preston's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.49 PPG, Preston 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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