Coventry 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coventry at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coventry host Plymouth at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Coventry — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coventry's home record at The Coventry Building Society Arena: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Plymouth have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Coventry 1.20 PPG, Plymouth 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Coventry trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Plymouth trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 41% versus Plymouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 33% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.25 xG and Plymouth 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 0.805 / defence 0.839 | Plymouth attack 0.807 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.217. Data: 63 Coventry games / 17 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 46% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Plymouth 4.17. Coventry hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coventry offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Coventry 40% | Plymouth 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 46% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Coventry 1.25 / Plymouth 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 0.805 / def 0.839 | Plymouth attack 0.807 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Coventry (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Plymouth xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Plymouth kick off?
Coventry vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Plymouth?
Coventry 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Coventry vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Plymouth part of?
Coventry vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 46% chance of winning, Plymouth a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Coventry and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coventry and Plymouth in?
Coventry (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Coventry's attack rating (0.81) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Coventry's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.40
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.07
0.82
Plymouth xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coventry and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Coventry and 0.82 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coventry come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 24D 16L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.90 PPG from 63 outings (36W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Coventry — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Coventry's home form reads 12W 14D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.39 points per game from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Coventry are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.76 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Plymouth in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 23W 24D 16L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 36W 12D 15L in their last 63 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Plymouth away?
Coventry's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.61 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Coventry or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Plymouth in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2024, when Coventry won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coventry's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coventry
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Coventry have won 2, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Plymouth 3-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Plymouth?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 45%, Plymouth 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Coventry) and 61% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Coventry's recent matches and 64% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coventry vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Coventry's recent games and 61% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Plymouth tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Plymouth 1-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.25 xG and Plymouth 0.82 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against Plymouth attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 46% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 24%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 33%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Coventry winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coventry (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.