Coventry 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coventry face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coventry host Plymouth at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship (matchday 18). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Coventry — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Coventry's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 7D 1L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plymouth stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Plymouth have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Coventry 1.20 PPG, Plymouth 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Coventry trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Plymouth trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 41% versus Plymouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 33% | Plymouth 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Coventry surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Plymouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.25 xG and Plymouth 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 0.805 / defence 0.839 | Plymouth attack 0.807 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.217. Data: built from Coventry's last 63 games and Plymouth's last 17.
Result probabilities: Coventry 46% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.17 | Draw 3.40 | Plymouth 4.09. Coventry hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coventry offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Coventry 40% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 18 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 46% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Coventry 1.25 / Plymouth 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 0.805 / def 0.839 | Plymouth attack 0.807 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Coventry (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Plymouth xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coventry vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Coventry vs Plymouth kick off?
Coventry vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Plymouth?
Coventry 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Coventry vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Plymouth part of?
Coventry vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 46% chance of winning, Plymouth a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Coventry and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Coventry vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Coventry's attack rating (0.81) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Coventry's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coventry's last 63 games and Plymouth's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.40
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.07
0.82
Plymouth xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coventry vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coventry and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Coventry and 0.82 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coventry come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 24D 16L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.90 PPG from 63 outings (36W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Coventry — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Coventry's home form reads 12W 14D 5L across their last 31 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 31 away games (11W 10D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Coventry are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.76 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Plymouth in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
Coventry (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coventry
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Coventry vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Coventry and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 23W 24D 16L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 36W 12D 15L in their last 63 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Plymouth away?
Coventry's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.61 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Coventry or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Plymouth in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2024, when Coventry won Coventry 4-0 Plymouth.
Coventry's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coventry
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Coventry vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Coventry have won 2, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coventry and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Plymouth 3-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Plymouth?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 45%, Plymouth 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Coventry) and 61% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coventry vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coventry and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Coventry's recent matches and 64% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coventry and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Coventry's recent games and 61% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Coventry's recent matches and 71% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Plymouth 1-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.25 xG and Plymouth 0.82 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against Plymouth attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 46% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 24%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 33%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Coventry winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coventry (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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