Norwich 1-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Norwich at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Norwich face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Norwich host QPR at Carrow Road in Championship (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Norwich — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Norwich's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Norwich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, QPR have recorded 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
QPR's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Norwich 0.70 PPG, QPR 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Norwich, 0 for QPR and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2023, ended Norwich 1–1 QPR — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Norwich in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
QPR in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 56% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 53% | QPR 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.34 xG and QPR 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.983 / defence 1.138 | QPR attack 0.785 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.214. QPR's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Norwich's last 62 games and QPR's last 62.
Result probabilities: Norwich 42% | Draw 27% | QPR 30%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 2.36 | Draw 3.64 | QPR 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norwich are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norwich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Norwich 50% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 17 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 42% | Draw 27% | QPR 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Norwich 1.34 / QPR 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.983 / def 1.138 | QPR attack 0.785 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Norwich (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.08
QPR xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Norwich vs QPR FAQs
What time does Norwich vs QPR kick off?
Norwich vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs QPR?
Norwich 1 - 0 QPR.
Where is Norwich vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs QPR part of?
Norwich vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 42% chance of winning, QPR a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Norwich and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Norwich vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Norwich's attack rating (0.98) and QPR's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Norwich's last 62 games and QPR's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.64
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.42
1.08
QPR xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Norwich vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Norwich and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Norwich and 1.08 for QPR, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Norwich have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 23W 13D 26L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 15W 15D 32L from 62 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norwich on 1.32 PPG, QPR on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Norwich have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 31 home games (12W 5D 14L).
On the road, QPR have gone 9W 8D 14L from their last 31 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Norwich are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.89 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Blended
QPR
Blended
Norwich (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Norwich
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Norwich vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Norwich and QPR in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 23W 13D 26L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while QPR have gone 15W 15D 32L in their last 62 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or QPR away?
Norwich's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.32 PPG; QPR away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 1 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Norwich have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Dec 2024, when QPR won QPR 3-0 Norwich.
Norwich's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Norwich
4
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Norwich vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and QPR?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Norwich have won 3, QPR have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2026: QPR 1-2 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and QPR?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 48%, QPR 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Norwich) and 48% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Norwich have failed to score in 36% of games; QPR in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Norwich vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Norwich and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Norwich's recent matches and 48% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Norwich and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Norwich's recent games and 48% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Norwich's recent matches and 64% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Norwich edge out QPR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat QPR 1-0 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.34 xG and QPR 1.08 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against QPR attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 42% | Draw 27% | QPR 30%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 53%, QPR 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.32 PPG, QPR 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 17
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →