Blackburn 4-2 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Blackburn face Birmingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Blackburn welcome Birmingham to Ewood Park in Championship (matchday 18). Kick-off is Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Blackburn stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Blackburn's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Birmingham have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Birmingham's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Blackburn 1.50 PPG, Birmingham 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Blackburn have won 3, Birmingham 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Blackburn 0–1 Birmingham — a Birmingham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Blackburn in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Birmingham in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 46% versus Birmingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 51% | Birmingham 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.36 xG and Birmingham 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.824 / defence 1.130 | Birmingham attack 0.763 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.213. Birmingham's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Blackburn's last 63 games and Birmingham's last 63.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 29%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.28 | Draw 3.67 | Birmingham 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Blackburn 70% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 18 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Blackburn 1.36 / Birmingham 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.824 / def 1.130 | Birmingham attack 0.763 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Birmingham xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Blackburn vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Blackburn vs Birmingham kick off?
Blackburn vs Birmingham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Birmingham?
Blackburn 4 - 2 Birmingham.
Where is Blackburn vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Birmingham part of?
Blackburn vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 44% chance of winning, Birmingham a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Blackburn and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Blackburn vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 0.82x the league average against Birmingham's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Blackburn's last 63 games and Birmingham's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.67
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.40
1.05
Birmingham xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Blackburn vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.05 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Blackburn's recent record stands at 28W 10D 25L from 63 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Birmingham, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 28L across 63 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.49 PPG, Birmingham on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 16W 4D 11L from their last 31 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Birmingham's away record stands at 8W 6D 17L across their last 31 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Blackburn are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.08 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
Blackburn (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Blackburn
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Blackburn vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Blackburn and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 28W 10D 25L in their last 63 games (1.49 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 20W 15D 28L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Birmingham away?
Blackburn's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.68 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Birmingham in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Dec 2021, when Blackburn won Blackburn 4-0 Birmingham.
Blackburn's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Blackburn
0
Draws
3
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Blackburn vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Birmingham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Blackburn have won 5, Birmingham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Birmingham 0-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Birmingham?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 48%, Birmingham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Blackburn) and 42% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Birmingham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Blackburn vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Blackburn and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Blackburn's recent matches and 48% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Blackburn and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Blackburn's recent games and 42% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Blackburn's recent matches and 77% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Birmingham 4-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.36 xG and Birmingham 1.05 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Blackburn beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Birmingham outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Birmingham attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 29%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 51%, Birmingham 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Birmingham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.49 PPG, Birmingham 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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