Cardiff 0-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees West Brom travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 November 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cardiff at 1.70 PPG versus West Brom's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cardiff register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, West Brom in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cardiff, 1 for West Brom and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
West Brom in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 44% versus West Brom 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 40% | West Brom 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.43 xG and West Brom 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.105 / defence 1.045 | West Brom attack 1.111 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.217. Data: 63 Cardiff games / 63 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 25% | West Brom 37%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | West Brom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 70% | West Brom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 25% | West Brom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Cardiff 1.43 / West Brom 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.105 / def 1.045 | West Brom attack 1.111 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.41
West Brom xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs West Brom kick off?
Cardiff vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs West Brom?
Cardiff 0 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Cardiff vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs West Brom part of?
Cardiff vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 38% chance of winning, West Brom a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cardiff and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and West Brom?
Record (4 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 3 | West Brom 1W.
What form are Cardiff and West Brom in?
Cardiff (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. West Brom (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
38%
2.65
25%
3.97
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.84
1.41
West Brom xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cardiff and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.41 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff's recent record stands at 21W 13D 29L from 63 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 26W 17D 20L across 63 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.21 PPG, West Brom on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 11W 8D 12L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 9W 8D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.38 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and West Brom in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while West Brom have gone 26W 17D 20L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or West Brom away?
Cardiff's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.32 PPG; West Brom away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Cardiff or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, West Brom in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and West Brom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cardiff
5
Draws
3
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and West Brom?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, West Brom have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cardiff 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 52%, West Brom 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cardiff) and 48% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Cardiff's games and 61% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cardiff's recent games and 48% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and West Brom tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, West Brom in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as West Brom defy the odds to beat Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.43 xG and West Brom 1.41 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against West Brom attack 1.11 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 38% | Draw 25% | West Brom 37%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 40%, West Brom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
West Brom's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.21 PPG, West Brom 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. West Brom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.