Birmingham 0-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Birmingham at 77% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Birmingham face Rotherham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Birmingham welcome Rotherham to St Andrew's Stadium in Championship (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Birmingham stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Birmingham's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Birmingham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Rotherham have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rotherham away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Birmingham) versus 0.70 (Rotherham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Birmingham have won 1, Rotherham 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Birmingham 2–0 Rotherham — a Birmingham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Birmingham in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 50% versus Rotherham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 44% | Rotherham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 2.59 xG and Rotherham 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.094 / defence 1.009 | Rotherham attack 0.600 / defence 1.671. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.213. Rotherham's defence rating of 1.671 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Birmingham's projected output up. Rotherham's attack rating of 0.600 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Birmingham's last 64 games and Rotherham's last 64.
Result probabilities: Birmingham 77% | Draw 14% | Rotherham 8%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 1.30 | Draw 6.90 | Rotherham 12.03. The model has a clear lean to Birmingham (77%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Birmingham as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Birmingham's last 10 home games and Rotherham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Birmingham 70% (last 10 home games) | Rotherham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, matchday 19 | Venue: St Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 77% | Draw 14% | Rotherham 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Birmingham 2.59 / Rotherham 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.094 / def 1.009 | Rotherham attack 0.600 / def 1.671 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Rotherham xG
48%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Birmingham vs Rotherham FAQs
What time does Birmingham vs Rotherham kick off?
Birmingham vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at St Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Rotherham?
Birmingham 0 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Birmingham vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Rotherham part of?
Birmingham vs Rotherham is a Championship fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 77% chance of winning, Rotherham a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Birmingham and Rotherham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Birmingham vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Birmingham's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (1.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.59. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Birmingham's last 64 games and Rotherham's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
77%
1.30
14%
6.90
8%
12.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Birmingham xG
Total xG
3.32
0.73
Rotherham xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.90
14%
Draw
12.03
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
8%
13.29
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
1%
159.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Birmingham vs Rotherham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Birmingham and 0.73 for Rotherham, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Rotherham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Birmingham come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 15D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 0.97 PPG from 64 outings (13W 23D 28L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Birmingham on 1.17 PPG, Rotherham on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Birmingham's home form reads 12W 9D 11L across their last 32 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 0.56 points per game from their last 32 away games (2W 12D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rotherham's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Birmingham are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.03 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
Birmingham (Home) vs Rotherham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Birmingham
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Birmingham vs Rotherham Form FAQs
What form are Birmingham and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 20W 15D 29L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 13W 23D 28L in their last 64 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Rotherham away?
Birmingham's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.41 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2022. They cover more than one competition — Championship, League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Birmingham have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Birmingham's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Birmingham
2
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Birmingham vs Rotherham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Rotherham?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Birmingham have won 3, Rotherham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Rotherham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Birmingham 2-1 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Rotherham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 50%, Rotherham 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Birmingham) and 41% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Birmingham have failed to score in 31% of games; Rotherham in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Birmingham vs Rotherham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Birmingham and Rotherham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Birmingham's recent matches and 38% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Birmingham and Rotherham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Birmingham's recent games and 41% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Rotherham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Birmingham's recent matches and 72% of Rotherham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Birmingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Birmingham and Rotherham drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 2.59 xG and Rotherham 0.73 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Birmingham fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Rotherham attack 0.60 / defence 1.67, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 77% | Draw 14% | Rotherham 8%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 44%, Rotherham 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rotherham's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.17 PPG, Rotherham 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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