Wuhan Zall 0-3 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Dongxihu Sports Centre to face Wuhan Zall in Super League (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Zall have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Wuhan Zall have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's record over their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Hangzhou Greentown are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Wuhan Zall's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Wuhan Zall's games and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Wuhan Zall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 57% versus Hangzhou Greentown 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 71% | Hangzhou Greentown 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.05 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.833 / defence 1.508 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.930 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.289. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.508 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Data: built from Wuhan Zall's last 33 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 19.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 22% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 55%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 4.61 | Draw 4.28 | Hangzhou Greentown 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Zall's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Zall 80% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 22 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 22% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Wuhan Zall 1.05 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.833 / def 1.508 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.930 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Hangzhou Greentown xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Wuhan Zall 0 - 3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 22) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 22% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (0.83) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.93x) against Wuhan Zall's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Zall's last 33 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
22%
4.61
23%
4.28
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.86
1.81
Hangzhou Greentown xG
4.61
22%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
4%
28.16
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.81 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Wuhan Zall have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 5W 2D 14L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 9W 9D 3L from 21 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Zall.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wuhan Zall have posted 0.73 PPG from their last 11 home games (2W 2D 7L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 6D 2L from their last 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.38 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Wuhan Zall (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 5W 2D 14L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 9W 9D 3L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 0.73 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 31 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
0
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 December 2022: Hangzhou Greentown 4-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Wuhan Zall, 64% for Hangzhou Greentown — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 91% (Wuhan Zall) and 27% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Wuhan Zall's games and 64% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 91% of Wuhan Zall's matches and 27% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Wuhan Zall and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 73% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Zall 0-3 at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.05 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wuhan Zall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.83 / defence 1.51 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 33/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 22% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 55%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 71%, Hangzhou Greentown 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.